Another take on "flattening the curve"

Hi folks, this one isn’t a link! I came across it in the comments section of a post I decided not to include – as I feel it downplayed the risk a bit too much. In the comments, it is a letter shared without attribution by the author of the comment, so I can’t attribute it!

Here it is:


Shared (not written by me)

There are 3170 ICU beds in Canada. That’s it for all critical care.

At least 5% of people who get COVID-19 will require mechanical ventilation. ICUs in Canada run at 100% capacity

At least 10% of people who get COVID-19 require hospitalization for
assistive breathing measures. Hospitals in Canada already run at 100%

Slowing down the viral spread is what’s needed to save
as many people as possible so that doctors don’t have to tell patients
we don’t have a ventilator for you. Measures such as social distancing
are important and impossible with travel. Please consider the vulnerable
people in our communities and their families.

The goal is to reduce the rapidity of transmission by social distancing.

If you can imagine 500 people gather and a 100 contract the virus all
at once then 10 people go on to hospitalization all at once and 5 people
are ventilated. Also 100 people go on to infect family members etc all
at once.

With social distancing it slows transmission so that
people get it more slowly and the health care system can accommodate
those infected who need care.

I totally understand the idea that
“I’m young and healthy I won’t need a bed” but it doesn’t just effect
the person travelling it affects the community health care resource for
everyone in that community. You can not follow social distancing in a
plane or a cruise ship.

Every little bit helps.

for a moment that there are 37,000,000 people in Canada. Experts
estimate that 30%-70% of the Canadian population will get this virus
because nobody is immune. Even if you assume 30% that means 11,000,000
infected and ultimately 555,000 requiring ventilation. Recovery takes
weeks. Even if we take the 3170 ICU beds and assign all of them to
COVID patients think about what that means for how slow we want this to

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